Print Archive
International investment agreements (IIAs), while intended to prop cross-border investment, have faced persistent criticism for potentially undermining the regulatory sovereignty of developing countries. Various mechanisms have been proposed as alternatives to traditional bilateral investment treaty (BIT) models, often with the goal of curbing investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) filings. While existing research has uncovered the impact of nonlegal factors, such as macroeconomic crises, little has been done to systematically examine how legal provisions in either major model BITs or ISDS reform toolboxes influence ISDS filing patterns. To address this gap, this Article analyzes the interplay between (i) legal texts of 2,148 BITs and treaties with investment provisions (TIPs) and (ii) the occurrence of 1,060 ISDS cases. It builds on the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)’s IIA Mapping Project to assess the impact of key legal deterrents recommended by ISDS reform proponents, while leveraging large language models to identify the key legal drivers of ISDS filings. The outcome of Poisson regression appears to reveal that: (i) procedural provisions resembling those in the 2012 U.S. Model BIT are the strongest positive predictors of ISDS filings, outweighing the impact of economic crises, whereas substantive provisions such as investor treatment and expropriation clauses are not; (ii) the effectiveness of deterrent provisions remains inconclusive, suggesting that their ability to curb ISDS filings requires further scrutiny; and (iii) the assumption that IIAs between developed host countries and developing states are more prone to ISDS filings is unsubstantiated. These findings could contribute to ongoing discussions on BIT reform by highlighting the legal determinants of ISDS frequencies, with implications for policymakers seeking to balance investment protection with regulatory autonomy.
For better or worse, technology at heart is—except to the extent that artificial intelligence fundamentally becomes involved—not so much a creator as a facilitator and enhancer of human acts, actions and activities, allowing them to become more effective, less costly, or sometimes even just merely feasible. Perhaps nowhere that is more pertinent then when it comes to human activities in outer space, which are still overwhelmingly conducted remotely and hence crucially dependent on technology. Given that “the law” has always been geared to address humans and their acts, actions, and activities, this gives rise to a rather special approach to maintaining and further developing a legal regime for outer space. The present Article intends to address and assess some of the most pertinent aspects of the unique body of space law from precisely this perspective, to shed some light on how “the law” would, could, and/or should handle relevant human endeavours in or with regard to outer space, in particular in the context of legal responsibilities and liabilities.
A number of emerging technologies increasingly prevalent on contemporary battlefields—notably unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) and various military applications of artificial intelligence (AI)—are working a sea change in the way that wars are fought. These technological developments also carry major implications for the investigation and prosecution of serious crimes committed in armed conflict, including for an under-examined yet potentially valuable form of evidence: information and material collected or obtained by military forces themselves.
Such “battlefield evidence” poses various legal and practical challenges. Yet it can play an important role in justice and accountability processes, in which it addresses the longstanding obstacle of law enforcement actors’ inability to access the conflict-torn crime scenes. Indeed, military-collected information and material has been critical to prosecutions of international crimes and terrorism offenses in recent years.
The present Article briefly surveys the historical record of battlefield evidence’s use. It demonstrates that previous technological advances—including in remote sensing, communications interception, biometrics, and digital data storage and analysis—not only enlarged and diversified the broader pool of military data but also had similar downstream effects on the (far) smaller subset of information shared and used for law enforcement purposes.
The Article then examines how current evolutions in the means and methods of warfare impact the utility of this increasingly prominent evidentiary tool. Ultimately, it is argued that the technical features of UAS and military AI give rise to significant, although qualified, opportunities for collection and exploitation of battlefield evidence. At the same time, these technologies and their broader impacts on the conduct of warfare risk inhibiting the sharing of such information and complicating its courtroom use.
Space exploration promises new opportunities but also new risks. After centuries of national settlements and international conflicts on Earth, and the Cold War era of two great power states racing to the Moon, today we see a rapidly proliferating arena of actors, both governmental and non-governmental, undertaking bold new ventures off-Earth while posing an array of new risks. These multiple activities, actors, and risks raise the prospects of regulatory gaps, costs, conflicts, and complexities that warrant reconsideration and renovation of legacy legal regimes such as the international space law agreements. New approaches are needed, beyond current national and international law, beyond global governance. We suggest that interplanetary risks warrant new institutions for risk regulation at the interplanetary scale. We discuss several examples, recognizing that interplanetary risks may be difficult to foresee. Some interplanetary risks may arise in the future, such as if settlements on other planets entail the need to manage interplanetary relations. Some interplanetary risks are already arising today, such as space debris, space weather, planetary protection against harmful contamination, planetary defense against asteroids, conflict among spacefaring actors, and potentially settling and terraforming other planets (whether to conduct scientific research, exploit space mining, or hedge against risks to life on Earth). These interplanetary risks pose potential tragedies of the commons, tragedies of complexity, and tragedies of the uncommons, in turn challenging regulatory institutions to manage collective action, risk-risk tradeoffs, and extreme catastrophic/existential risks. Optimal interplanetary risk regulation can learn from experience in terrestrial risk regulation, including by designing for adaptive policy learning. Beyond national and international law on Earth, the new space era will need interplanetary risk regulation.
This Essay sketches an informal theory of the impact of technological change on international economics, and hence international relations expressed as international law. The theory points to a policy trilemma, something that I call Cerberus in a perhaps futile attempt at an arresting metaphor. The Essay uses the trilemma to illuminate the general trends in technology policy we see playing out in China, Europe, and the United States. It argues that we have the privilege of witnessing an ongoing natural experiment in optimal technology regulation and legal policy, with no guarantee as to which approach will prevail.
Of course, like all natural experiments, the signal struggles to emerge against a background of geopolitical noise. Events and projects unrelated to policy competition might decide the game, and we might never find out what an optimal strategy may entail. Still, we can’t rule out the chance that we might learn something as the great game plays out.